By: ROBERTA MACINTYRE & DAVID BECKER, March 25, 2026
Polls, Ballot Seizures, and the Unexpected Election Dynamics
As California heads into its 2026 gubernatorial race, some political observers are raising a provocative question: Could the state witness a general election runoff between two Republicans? This possibility, once considered far-fetched in deep-blue California, is now a subject of serious debate given recent polling and headline-grabbing events.
Current Polling Landscape
A new Democratic poll has stirred the political waters, showing Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco leading the pack. Meanwhile, Democratic hopefuls Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer are locked in a three-way tie for third place. Notably, other Democratic candidates are polling below 3%, suggesting a narrowing path for the party to secure a spot in the general election. If this trend persists, there is a real risk that Democrats could be shut out entirely—an outcome that would upend California’s political expectations.
Chad Bianco’s Ballot Investigation
Adding fuel to the political fire, Chad Bianco recently seized 2025 ballots as part of a voter fraud investigation. The move has prompted California officials to seek a court order to halt his actions, raising questions about election integrity and the boundaries of investigative authority. This legal showdown is unfolding as the primary approaches, and it has become a flashpoint in the broader debate over ballot security and transparency.
Implications for Democrats
The specter of a Republican-only runoff looms large for Democrats. With their leading candidates tied and others struggling to break through, the party faces a significant challenge to avoid being locked out of the general election. This scenario underscores the importance of voter mobilization and strategic campaigning as the June primary draws near.
Election Process
Ballots for the June primary will be mailed out on May 4, and all candidates—including those who drop out—will remain on the ballot. This process ensures that voters will see a full slate of names, even as the field may narrow before Election Day. The timing and structure of California’s election rules could play a decisive role in shaping the outcome.
California Primary Elections
All candidates for voter-nominated offices are listed on one ballot and only the top two vote-getters in the primary election – regardless of party preference – move on to the general election. Write-in candidates for voter-nominated offices can only run in the primary election. A write-in candidate will only move on to the general election if the candidate is one of the top two vote-getters in the primary election.
Prior to the Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act, the top vote-getter from each qualified political party, as well as any write-in candidate who received a certain percentage of votes, moved on to the general election.
The Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act does not apply to candidates running for U.S. President, county central committee, or local office.
Conclusion
The possibility of a Republican-only gubernatorial runoff is more than just a theoretical exercise; it reflects the shifting dynamics within California’s political landscape. As polling numbers fluctuate and legal battles unfold, voters should pay close attention to the unfolding drama. The choices made in the coming weeks could redefine the state’s political future, making this election one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.
Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under Creative Commons
For More Information: Voter-Nominated Offices